Annual van thefts predicted to double in the next decade to over 20,000
According to our research, predicted future levels of van theft could double to 20,000 in the next decade - after seeing an 81% increase from 2015 to 2019.
Using UK van theft data, we have predicted the number of vans stolen each year from 2022 to 2030, the van models that are most at risk of theft, the most commonly stolen items and how to prevent your van from being stolen.
Over 20,000 vans predicted to be stolen in 2030
According to our research, by 2030 an average of 56 vans will be stolen each day in the UK - a 70% increase from predicted 2022 figures.
Surprisingly, between 2018 and 2019 there was a drop in the number of vans being stolen per year, with 8,483 vans being stolen in 2018 compared to 8,072 in 2019. However, our study indicates by the year 2030, this will, unfortunately, have grown by over double to 20,531 annual van thefts.
Greater London is predicted to see the largest number of van thefts, reaching 3,827 in 2030
According to our study, London is home to the highest number of van thefts, with figures far above all regions. By 2030, over three thousand vans will be stolen in Greater London alone.
The lowest levels of theft have been reported in the North of England, followed by West Midlands, South West of England and Wales.
Rank |
Region |
Daily Van Thefts in 2019 |
Predicted Number of Van Thefts in 2022 |
Predicted Number of Van Thefts in 2030 |
1 |
Greater London |
1,504 |
2232 |
3,827 |
2 |
East Midlands |
188 |
280 |
479 |
3 |
Yorkshire and Humberside |
145 |
215 |
368 |
4 |
North West England |
112 |
166 |
284 |
5 |
South East England |
110 |
163 |
280 |
6 |
East England |
104 |
154 |
263 |
7 |
Wales |
79 |
117 |
201 |
8 |
South West England |
65 |
96 |
164 |
9 |
West Midlands |
61 |
90 |
154 |
10 |
North England |
59 |
87 |
149 |
The van models most at risk of theft
During 2019, the vans most at risk were Mercedes Sprinter models. This could remain the same in 2022, as predictions show the Mercedes Sprinter 313 CDI could be the most stolen van model, increasing to 66 more annual thefts in just three years.
Below shows the top 10 most stolen vans:
Rank |
Company |
Van Model |
Van Thefts in 2019 |
|
1 |
Mercedes |
SPRINTER 313 CDI |
1,460 |
1,526 |
2 |
Mercedes |
SPRINTER 314 CDI |
1,135 |
1402 |
3 |
Ford |
TRANSIT 350 |
712 |
1300 |
4 |
Ford |
TRANSIT 125 T350 RWD |
772 |
1012 |
5 |
Ford |
TRANSIT CUSTOM 290 ECO-TECH |
280 |
511 |
6 |
Ford |
TRANSIT 100 T350 RWD |
434 |
506 |
7 |
Ford |
TRANSIT 115 T350L RWD |
451 |
391 |
8 |
Ford |
TRANSIT 100 T280 FWD |
327 |
363 |
9 |
Ford |
TRANSIT 100 T260 FWD |
279 |
276 |
10 |
Ford |
TRANSIT 85 T280S FWD |
263 |
209 |
Unsurprisingly, tools are the most commonly stolen items from van break-ins
Nearly 67% of break-ins include having tools stolen, and research shows that only 1% are ever recovered due to their high resale value, leaving a devastating impact on tradespeople and their ability to do their job.
The second most stolen item in van thefts is equipment which includes van safes, ladders and storage. Personal items, including wallets and cards, contribute to 41.7% of all stolen items from vans and data reveals that just 5.6% of items stolen include cash.
Helpful handyman tips to avoiding van theft
Taking into consideration the prevalence of van theft, we have also pulled together 5 top tips for keeping your van, and its contents, as safe as possible.
1. Locking your van
Simple? Yes, but remembering to always lock your van is the first and most essential tip to protecting your van and contents.
Consider adding extra security, such as a slam fitted lock which automatically locks the door when it's shut.
2. Add your own safety measures
Although a more expensive option, adding a GPS tracker into your van is worth it as the police can keep track of your vehicle if it's stolen, giving you a much higher chance of getting it and your belongings back.
Consider labelling your tools with a UV pen too, this appears invisible to the naked eye but can be identified by police if your stolen tools are recovered.
Lastly, keep an inventory of your tools - write down the makes and quantities you have so in the worst case, you can quickly identify what’s been stolen.
3. Safely storing valuables
Don't leave your valuables on display. If your wallet is on show, keys visible and tools sprawled, you have a higher chance of thieves peering in.
Removing your valuables each evening is the safest option. However, if your belongings, such as your tools need to be kept in the van, consider investing in a safe that’s been tested and recognised against crime.
4. Think twice about parking
Parking in a place that will deter thieves will likely lower your chances of a robbery. We recommend parking so that your doors are inaccessible, ie. against a wall or fence, blocking direct access to them. This will help avoid 'peel and steal' - the common tactic where a door is wrenched off without the use of any tools.
Think sensibly and park in a guarded, busy and well-lit area, with CCTV around whenever possible.
5. Insurance
A van insurance spokesperson at Compare the Market adds; “Having insurance won't prevent your personal items, tools or van from being stolen but it can make the aftermath less stressful. It is worth spending the time understanding what your insurance covers, if you don’t already know, or before you take out a new policy. This way you can be confident that your van and your contents are covered in the worst-case scenario.”
Sources & Methodology
Predictions on van thefts are based on using a linear regression formula and historical data from 2015 to 2019.
When finding the number of vans stolen regionally, percentage change YoY was used to calculate previous years by using later year data divided by 100, plus the percentage change from the previous year. All regional theft data reflects the average van thefts per constabulary, excluding those areas that did not answer the original Freedom of Information request.
An exponential growth line was mapped to historic data in order to predict future results. All Wales data was applied to North Wales. There was no data available for Scotland or Northern Ireland.
- Vans stolen per year across the UK and stolen items: https://logistics.org.uk/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=d6b6a58d-f29c-49e1-93df-3e3a55eebdbb&lang=en-GB
- Stolen van makes and models: https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/stolen_vehicle_statistics_6