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18,540 burglaries predicted across the UK this December

Over 4.3 million burglaries have occurred over the last decade in the UK, so it’s becoming increasingly important to protect our homes. Now, in the lead up to Christmas, having presents on display in our front living rooms may unknowingly be attracting unwanted attention from burglars.

Over 4.3 million burglaries have occurred over the last decade in the UK, so it’s becoming increasingly important to protect our homes. Now, in the lead up to Christmas, having presents on display in our front living rooms may unknowingly be attracting unwanted attention from burglars.

Using UK crime data, we have analysed the rising cost of Christmas burglaries across the UK, uncovering the predicted cost of presents stolen this year, the areas most at risk of burglary, and how to prevent burglars from entering your home.

Christmas burglaries will cost the UK £7.8M this year

According to our study, this Christmas there could be 18,540 burglaries during December, costing the UK £7.8M in lost Christmas presents. London is predicted to face the highest number of Christmas presents at risk of being stolen - potentially costing the city as much as £1.7M. It is predicted that 5,209 London homes will be burgled, a rate equivalent to 168 break-ins every day throughout December.

Following London is the West Midlands and West Yorkshire, with significantly lower but proportionally high numbers of Christmas presents at risk of burglary - totaling £516k and £413k respectively. After London, residents in the West Midlands are set to spend the second-most on Christmas presents at £767M - so it’s crucial that Brits outside of London take note of ways to burglary proof homes too.

To predict the cities most at risk of Christmas burglaries, we analysed locational burglary incidence data against the predicted Christmas spend per household this December. You can find the top 10 cities below:

Rank Region* Location Total Predicted Christmas Present Value at Risk 2021
1 London London £1,755,433
2 West Midlands West Midlands £516,283
3 Yorkshire and Humberside West Yorkshire £413,355
4 Yorkshire and Humberside South Yorkshire £274,558
5 North West Lancashire £266,354
6 North West Merseyside £259,030
7 South East Hampshire £235,187
8 East of England Essex £208,874
9 South East Kent £203,099
10 East Midlands Lincolnshire £181,656

Table one. The predicted most financially impacted UK locations due to Christmas burglaries this year.
*Data in Scotland was not available

London residents are most at risk of December burglaries, followed by South Yorkshire and West Midlands 

When analysing the UK areas most prone to burglaries, the study revealed that London residents face the highest risk with a predicted one in 137 households reporting burglaries this December.

South Yorkshire and West Midlands, follow in the top three locations for burglary incidents. You can find the top cities below:

Region* Location Number of Predicted Burglaries in December 2021 Predicted Burglary Rate 2021 (per 1000 people)
London London 5209 7.3
Yorkshire and Humberside South Yorkshire 855 7.1
West Midlands West Midlands 1671 6.2
Yorkshire and Humberside East Riding Of Yorkshire 306 6.0
Yorkshire and Humberside West Yorkshire 1288 6.0
Wales Gwent 189 5.0
East Midlands Lincolnshire 483 4.7
East of England Bedfordshire 298 4.7
South East Hampshire 700 4.4
Yorkshire and Humberside North Yorkshire 440 4.4

Table two. The locations with the highest burglary rates per 1000 people.
*Data in Scotland was not available

Five tips to help prevent being burgled this Christmas

1. Check your doors, windows and locks for weak spots

According to ONS data, doors, locks and windows are the top three ways burglars enter homes. It’s therefore crucial to make sure that these entry points don’t have any weak spots. According to property expert Thomas Goodman, “many people believe that a burglar would never enter through the front door. Seasoned burglars know exactly where to search for the spare key you've "hidden." 

When checking your entry points for weak spots, ensure you’re keeping your doors' strike plates as securely fastened as possible (the metal plate affixed to where your door locks). You can also consider purchasing protective covers for your locks.

2. Do not advertise your Christmas gifts on social media

A big mistake you might unknowingly be making is posting your gifts on social media for burglars to target - especially if your account is open to the public. 

3. Dispose of Christmas wrapping

When it comes to Christmas wrapping, make sure to get rid of any boxes as soon as possible. According to Goodman, “don't leave boxes out, especially packaging for pricey electrical products, as this will alert robbers that you have valuables on your premises”.

4. Install CCTV, motion sensors or visible deterrents

From automatic security lights to visible alarm systems, there are many home security features that are inexpensive and effective for protecting your home against burglars. Goodman recommends that you “purchase a motion sensor floodlight or some outdoor Christmas lights to deter burglars from entering your home. Motion sensor lighting is especially useful, as they turn on automatically when movement is detected, which will scare off any potential intruders.”

5. Review your current home and contents insurance

When it comes to ensuring that you’re protected against burglary, a vital step is to make sure you have contents insurance. Chris King, Head of Home Insurance at comparethemarket.com adds; “protecting our homes shouldn’t just be thought of during the festive season. If you’re purchasing and storing valuable gifts ahead of Christmas then checking the terms and conditions of your home insurance policy is the best way to know what you are covered for. Some insurers automatically take into consideration the extra risk of having more valuables at home during the run-up to Christmas into their pricing, but not all.”

Sources & Methodology

Regional burglary December predictions for 2021 were calculated by taking the regional burglaries in 2020 multiplied by the predicted percentage of total UK burglaries in December 2021. The predicted percentage of total UK burglaries in December 2021 was calculated by using 10 years’ worth of monthly crime data and applying an average monthly percentage trend formula. 

The regional Christmas spend predictions for 2021 were calculated by looking at 2019 and 2020 ONS data on average Christmas spending in the UK by regions. A linear trend formula was used to predict the average Christmas spending in 2021 by region. The final predicted regional Christmas spend figures for 2021 was then calculated by taking the regional population divided by UK average household size (2.4) multiplied by the predicted average Christmas spending in 2021 by region.

The final predicted regional Christmas present value at risk in 2021 was calculated by taking the predicted regional burglaries in December 2021, multiplied by the corresponding predicted regional Christmas spend for 2021.

All 2021 predictions based exclusively on prior years, not including existing 2021 data. Data regarding burglaries refers to all burglary attempts including failures.